AUD/USD: Braces a positive start on progress in ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine

• AUD/USD eyes a decent start on ceasefire progress between Russia and Ukraine.
• Monetary policy action from the Fed will likely dictate the price action this week.
• The strong print of US CPI last week dictates an aggressive monetary policy from the Fed.

The AUD/USD pair braces a positive open amid progress in a ceasefire between the Kremlin and Kyiv as U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Russia was showing signs of willingness to engage in substantive negotiations about ending a conflict on Sunday, as per Reuters. This is likely to bring a reversal in sentiments of the market and risk-perceived assets will underpin against the safe-haven assets. The major is expected to extend its gains after breaching January 12 high at 0.7314.

Earlier, the aussie remained stronger against the greenback as the formerly found bids on rising metal prices. Boiling oil prices have eventually take-off the food and metal prices too and a country like Australia, which is enriched with iron ore, coal, and other metals kept the aussie stronger despite an overall risk-off impulse in the market.

Well, the headlines from the Russia-Ukraine will keep on poking the investors but the major macro, which will hold the nerves of investors will be the interest rate decision by Federal Reserve (Fed)’s Chair Jerome Powell and its colleagues. The Fed will declare the much-awaited monetary policy on Wednesday. The cues from US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US employment data are in favor of an aggressive tightening policy by the Fed. However, the Fed is likely to stick to a 25 basis point (bps) dictation in Powell’s testimony. Moreover, the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war will guide the decision from the Fed.

Apart from the Fed’s decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will report their minutes of the last monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, which will dictate their rationale behind the decision of status-quo and current status of the economics in Australia.