RBNZ Preview: An expansion of QE to $60bn would cause a small market reaction – Westpac

The biggest market reaction will hinge on what the RBNZ says (or doesn’t say) about the possibility of a negative OCR, in the opinion of economists at Westpac Institutional Bank.

Key quotes

“An expansion of QE to $60bn would be no great surprise to markets and would cause only a small market reaction.” 

“In our preferred scenario of the RBNZ giving a ‘soft’ indication that it intends to keep the OCR at 0.25% until March 2021, but that it remains open to a cut after that, markets would move little.”

“In the possible scenario of the RBNZ giving an iron-clad guarantee that the OCR will stay at 0.25% until March, but indicating that the OCR could go negative after that, short-end swap rates would rise.”