USD/JPY: Outlook is negative – Commerzbank

In view of Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY’s outlook is negative following the failure at the end of last year at the 2018-2020 downtrend at 109.55.

Key Quotes

“It has sold off to the 107.89 November low which has so far held on a closing basis. This guards the 106.48 October low and eventually the 105.00 region.”

“Initial resistance is the 55 day ma at 108.92/109.08 and we look for rallies to struggle here, the intraday Elliott wave counts are also indicating failure here.”

“Only on a weekly chart close above the 2015- 2019 downtrend line and the December high at 109.72/110.27 (not favoured) would we question our bearish bias.”