US: NFP likely to bounce to 165k in March – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts are expecting the US NFP to print 165k in March after we had that huge plunge in February payroll growth to just +20k which was the lowest since September 2017 and the third lowest since January 2011. 

Key Quotes

“Expectations are for a bounce back 177k print however that is still below the average of the last three (186k), six (190k) and twelve (212k) months. To be fair there is a decent range on the Bloomberg survey at 110k to 277k.”

“Our US economists have a 165k forecast and they note that the hostile weather in mid-March also raises the risk of another downside miss. As for earnings, the consensus is for a solid +0.3% mom reading (DB at +0.2% mom) which should keep the annual rate at +3.4% yoy. The unemployment rate is also expected to hold steady at 3.8%. So lots to look out for as ever.”