RBNZ OCR: Still "up or down" - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ note that the RBNZ left the OCR at 1.75%, as universally expected as they retained a consistent message, reiterating that the next move in the OCR could be “up or down” and that they expect to keep the OCR at “an expansionary level for a considerable period”.

Key Quotes

“Overall, the RBNZ noted that their projections were “little changed” from the August Monetary Policy Statement, with the OCR expected to remain at its current level “through 2019 and into 2020”.”

“Q2 GDP was stronger than they expected and there is accordingly a little less spare capacity in the economy than previously assumed, but forward-looking indicators have been a touch more negative and the outlook is far from assured.”

“The statement remained firmly in neutral territory.”

“The words around the inflation outlook were slightly more cautious.”

“We see the OCR on hold for the foreseeable future. But with inflation still low and the activity outlook uncertain, the RBNZ stands ready to act should the activity outlook disappoint. Accordingly, all eyes will be on the economic data-flow into the end of the year.”

“Today’s Review appears to have been successfully geared to generate little market reaction.”