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3 Apr 2014
Asia Recap: Risk of AUD appreciation to be faded ahead of NFP - Arab Bank
FXStreet (Bali) - David Scutt, Treasury Dealer at Arab Bank in Australia, looks at the next AUD drivers for the Asian session, noting that all the attention will be on the retail sales, trade figures and a speech by RBA Governor.
Key Quotes
"Today almost all of the attention will be domestically, at least in the short-term, with retail sales and trade figures for February set to dictate direction."
"While strong readings will see the Aussie push higher initially, with the US data starting to strengthen and March non-farm payrolls released tomorrow evening, we expect that any initial surge will be faded as investors look to book profits following the Aussie’s stellar run of late."
"Conversely, should the data miss, expect the pair to give back ground, albeit modestly, given Asia’s insatiable appetite of late."
"Support is found at the overnight low, .9218, .9209 and again at .9200 with resistance kicking in at .9261 and above .9284."
"All attention today will be on the retail sales and trade figures with economists expecting an increase of 0.3% in retail turnover, down from 1.2% in January, along with a trade surplus of $800m."
"While a gain in sales is all but expected, turnover has risen for the past nine months, based off recent trade data from China, along with falling base metals and ore prices of late, we feel that there is a risk that surplus figure may well undershoot."
"The PSI gauge is released at 9.30am (Australian time) with the retail and trade numbers following soon after at 11.30am. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will address the Australia-American Chamber of Commerce in Brisbane at 1pm this afternoon."
Key Quotes
"Today almost all of the attention will be domestically, at least in the short-term, with retail sales and trade figures for February set to dictate direction."
"While strong readings will see the Aussie push higher initially, with the US data starting to strengthen and March non-farm payrolls released tomorrow evening, we expect that any initial surge will be faded as investors look to book profits following the Aussie’s stellar run of late."
"Conversely, should the data miss, expect the pair to give back ground, albeit modestly, given Asia’s insatiable appetite of late."
"Support is found at the overnight low, .9218, .9209 and again at .9200 with resistance kicking in at .9261 and above .9284."
"All attention today will be on the retail sales and trade figures with economists expecting an increase of 0.3% in retail turnover, down from 1.2% in January, along with a trade surplus of $800m."
"While a gain in sales is all but expected, turnover has risen for the past nine months, based off recent trade data from China, along with falling base metals and ore prices of late, we feel that there is a risk that surplus figure may well undershoot."
"The PSI gauge is released at 9.30am (Australian time) with the retail and trade numbers following soon after at 11.30am. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will address the Australia-American Chamber of Commerce in Brisbane at 1pm this afternoon."