UK: Focus on trade and industrial production data – Nomura

According to analysts at Nomura, much of the near-GBP2bn widening of the UK’s trade deficit between February and March was due to underlying (ex-oil and erratic items) non-EU trade and they expect the deficit to move back to GBP11.5bn, similar to the previous six month average.

Key Quotes

“Industrial production: A string of 10 monthly rises in manufacturing output (from April 2017 to January 2018) came to an end with small falls in February and March. With the survey evidence still supportive, we forecast a modest rise in April. Weaker energy output due to warmer weather could hold back overall industrial output.”