RBNZ seen hiking Q4 2019 – UOB

Researchers at UOB Group remain of the view that the RBNZ could hike rates at some point in Q4 2019.

Key Quotes

“Overall, the RBNZ’s cash rate profile suggests that inflation will not rise to 2% until 4Q20, a quarter later than forecast previously. And the projections continue to imply that whilst the next move will be up, a 25bps rate hike is not fully factored in until 1Q20”.

“We are now of the view that the RBNZ will lag the RBA in tightening – we look for the RBNZ first raising rates in the second half of 2019, whilst the RBA is still forecast to move by 1H19”.