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8 Feb 2016
EUR/USD forecast: digesting US Payrolls – Commerzbank and Danske Bank
EUR/USD keeps the trade above the 1.1100 handle ahead of the European open on Monday, following the mixed sensations after Friday’s US Non-farm Payrolls (151K).
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “Eased back on Friday and although it came close to it did not overcome the 1.1260/96 23.6% retracement of the move down from the 2014 peak and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the August 2014 peak. While the market continues to close below here we will maintain a negative bias – above will force us to neutralise”.
In addition, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Jens Pedersen suggested “the market is probably too dovish on the Fed at the moment and we think that the USD is likely to stabilise in the coming days on the back of a possible re-pricing in the US money market. According to our short-term financial models, the USD remains slightly oversold versus the EUR and JPY indicating fair values for EUR/USD at 1.0958 and USD/JPY at 119.69”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “Eased back on Friday and although it came close to it did not overcome the 1.1260/96 23.6% retracement of the move down from the 2014 peak and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the August 2014 peak. While the market continues to close below here we will maintain a negative bias – above will force us to neutralise”.
In addition, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Jens Pedersen suggested “the market is probably too dovish on the Fed at the moment and we think that the USD is likely to stabilise in the coming days on the back of a possible re-pricing in the US money market. According to our short-term financial models, the USD remains slightly oversold versus the EUR and JPY indicating fair values for EUR/USD at 1.0958 and USD/JPY at 119.69”.