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22 Dec 2015
EM preview for the week ahead - BBH
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, presents the emerging markets preview for the rest of the week.
Key Quotes
“Turkey’s central bank meets Tuesday and is expected to hike the benchmark rate 50 bp to 8%. The market is truly split, however. Of the 22 analysts polled by Bloomberg, 6 see no change, 4 see a 25 bp hike, 9 see a 50 bp hike, and 3 see a 100 bp hike. We believe the bank will be under great pressure from the government not to hike rates, and so we think there is a risk of a dovish surprise with no hike.
Malaysia reports November CPI Wednesday, and is expected to rise 2.4% y/y vs. 2.5% in October. Price pressures remain under control, but the upside risks from El Nino are likely keeping the central bank cautious for now. If the economy slows, we think the central bank will tilt more dovish in 2016.
Singapore reports November CPI Wednesday, and is expected at -0.7% y/y vs. -0.8% in October. It then reports November IPThursday, and is expected at -3.0% y/y vs. -5.4% in October. With deflation risks persisting and the economy still slowing, we believe the MAS will loosen policy in 2016 by adjusting its S$NEER trading band.
Taiwan reports November IP Wednesday, and is expected at -5.6% y/y vs. -6.2% in October. Earlier today, November export orders came in weaker than expected at -6.3% y/y. The weak economy and persistent deflation risks led the central bank to cut rates last week. We think easing will continue in 2016.
South Africa reports November budget data Wednesday, and is expected at –ZAR22 bln. If so, the 12-month total would jump to the highest level since February. Even with Gordhan back as Finance Minister, sluggish growth will likely keep pressure on the deficit. We think downgrades to sub-investment grade are likely in 2016.
Brazil reports November central government budget data Wednesday, and the primary balance is expected at –BRL12.1 bln. The recession is likely to keep upward pressure on the budget deficit. The central bank also releases its quarterly inflation reportWednesday. Inflation is still rising, and we believe the tightening cycle will be restarted in Q1.
Mexico reports mid-December CPI Wednesday, and is expected to rise 2.07% y/y vs. 2.26% in mid-November. It also reports the monthly GDP proxy for October that day, and is expected to rise 2.0% y/y vs. 3.1% in September. The ongoing combination of sluggish growth and low inflation should keep the tightening cycle very modest. Mexico reports November trade Thursday.”
Key Quotes
“Turkey’s central bank meets Tuesday and is expected to hike the benchmark rate 50 bp to 8%. The market is truly split, however. Of the 22 analysts polled by Bloomberg, 6 see no change, 4 see a 25 bp hike, 9 see a 50 bp hike, and 3 see a 100 bp hike. We believe the bank will be under great pressure from the government not to hike rates, and so we think there is a risk of a dovish surprise with no hike.
Malaysia reports November CPI Wednesday, and is expected to rise 2.4% y/y vs. 2.5% in October. Price pressures remain under control, but the upside risks from El Nino are likely keeping the central bank cautious for now. If the economy slows, we think the central bank will tilt more dovish in 2016.
Singapore reports November CPI Wednesday, and is expected at -0.7% y/y vs. -0.8% in October. It then reports November IPThursday, and is expected at -3.0% y/y vs. -5.4% in October. With deflation risks persisting and the economy still slowing, we believe the MAS will loosen policy in 2016 by adjusting its S$NEER trading band.
Taiwan reports November IP Wednesday, and is expected at -5.6% y/y vs. -6.2% in October. Earlier today, November export orders came in weaker than expected at -6.3% y/y. The weak economy and persistent deflation risks led the central bank to cut rates last week. We think easing will continue in 2016.
South Africa reports November budget data Wednesday, and is expected at –ZAR22 bln. If so, the 12-month total would jump to the highest level since February. Even with Gordhan back as Finance Minister, sluggish growth will likely keep pressure on the deficit. We think downgrades to sub-investment grade are likely in 2016.
Brazil reports November central government budget data Wednesday, and the primary balance is expected at –BRL12.1 bln. The recession is likely to keep upward pressure on the budget deficit. The central bank also releases its quarterly inflation reportWednesday. Inflation is still rising, and we believe the tightening cycle will be restarted in Q1.
Mexico reports mid-December CPI Wednesday, and is expected to rise 2.07% y/y vs. 2.26% in mid-November. It also reports the monthly GDP proxy for October that day, and is expected to rise 2.0% y/y vs. 3.1% in September. The ongoing combination of sluggish growth and low inflation should keep the tightening cycle very modest. Mexico reports November trade Thursday.”