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14 Dec 2015
CFTC speculative positioning - ANZ
FXStreet (Guatemala) - From the positioning data is for the week ending 8 December 2015.Analysts at ANZ explained that leveraged funds reduced their net long USD position by USD0.7bn to USD33.7bn.
Key Quotes:
"There was never any doubt that we would see a paring back of long dollar positions following the smaller than expected easing delivered by the ECB on 3 December. But the size of the net USD selling was much smaller than expected, especially considering the size of the moves in the DXY. What’s more, there was actually net buying for those wanting direct exposure to the DXY.
Short EUR positions were trimmed by USD1.1bn to USD17.9bn. Given the euro reaction post the ECB meeting of 3 December, we were expecting a much larger unwind of short positions. This suggests that the euro is susceptible to further short squeezes if leveraged funds intend on further paring back on their short positions.
Since turning net short in GBP in early December, leveraged funds have added to their short sterling bets. Overall, net short positions have risen by USD1.0bn to USD1.3bn. This is the third consecutive week that leveraged funds have been net sellers of GBP.
JPY and CHF were the other major currencies to see net selling by leveraged funds. In both cases though, the currency has gained and we could see some positioning unwinds soon.
Positioning in commodity currencies continues to buck the trend of lower commodity prices. All three commodity currencies saw net buying totalling USD1.1bn. EM currencies also saw net buying, with leveraged funds turning net long in BRL for the first time since July."
Key Quotes:
"There was never any doubt that we would see a paring back of long dollar positions following the smaller than expected easing delivered by the ECB on 3 December. But the size of the net USD selling was much smaller than expected, especially considering the size of the moves in the DXY. What’s more, there was actually net buying for those wanting direct exposure to the DXY.
Short EUR positions were trimmed by USD1.1bn to USD17.9bn. Given the euro reaction post the ECB meeting of 3 December, we were expecting a much larger unwind of short positions. This suggests that the euro is susceptible to further short squeezes if leveraged funds intend on further paring back on their short positions.
Since turning net short in GBP in early December, leveraged funds have added to their short sterling bets. Overall, net short positions have risen by USD1.0bn to USD1.3bn. This is the third consecutive week that leveraged funds have been net sellers of GBP.
JPY and CHF were the other major currencies to see net selling by leveraged funds. In both cases though, the currency has gained and we could see some positioning unwinds soon.
Positioning in commodity currencies continues to buck the trend of lower commodity prices. All three commodity currencies saw net buying totalling USD1.1bn. EM currencies also saw net buying, with leveraged funds turning net long in BRL for the first time since July."