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2 Nov 2015
RBA: Door is open, but no need to cut - BAML
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BAML, suggest that they do not think the RBA will cut rates at its upcoming meeting, but last week's weak inflation read has made it a close call.
Key Quotes
“We expect the curve to stay steep even if the RBA pauses this month. Look to fade a rally for Jun Bank Bills if they do ease.”
“We continue to expect AUD/USD to end 2015 at 0.69 - a rate cut however would lead to a bigger drop than we currently project.”
“The Banks's recent minutes were almost upbeat on the domestic economy, suggesting on this basis at least the glass may be assessed as being more half full than half empty. And although it does not seem to be getting fuller faster, it may not get any emptier. That is to say, although domestic downside risks remain, they may be gradually fading, at least for the time being.”
“We have characterized this as risks shifting gradually from the business sector toward the household sector. Survey business sentiment is passable, but not outperforming as yet despite hopes for further improvement with the change in government leadership. Yet surveyed conditions are improving steadily in trend terms and we continue to highlight that on a historical basis it unusual for the RBA to be easing monetary policy while this is the case.”
Key Quotes
“We expect the curve to stay steep even if the RBA pauses this month. Look to fade a rally for Jun Bank Bills if they do ease.”
“We continue to expect AUD/USD to end 2015 at 0.69 - a rate cut however would lead to a bigger drop than we currently project.”
“The Banks's recent minutes were almost upbeat on the domestic economy, suggesting on this basis at least the glass may be assessed as being more half full than half empty. And although it does not seem to be getting fuller faster, it may not get any emptier. That is to say, although domestic downside risks remain, they may be gradually fading, at least for the time being.”
“We have characterized this as risks shifting gradually from the business sector toward the household sector. Survey business sentiment is passable, but not outperforming as yet despite hopes for further improvement with the change in government leadership. Yet surveyed conditions are improving steadily in trend terms and we continue to highlight that on a historical basis it unusual for the RBA to be easing monetary policy while this is the case.”