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30 Oct 2015
Eurozone unemployment trend shows improvement – ING
FXStreet (Delhi) – Bert Colijn, Research Analyst at ING, notes that the Eurozone unemployment rate declined from a revised 10.9 to 10.8 percent in September which indicated that the trend in unemployment declines remains relatively strong.
Key Quotes
The three-month average decline is in fact the 6th strongest since the start of the Eurozone in 1999, which is encouraging. It shows that the labour market is continuing to support the recovery of domestic demand, which has already been the strongest driver of the European economy in recent months. This means that some tailwind can be expected for holiday shopping, but as unemployment remains well above 10 percent, this release is unlikely to affect December’s most important event: the ECB meeting on December 3.”
“Improvements in the unemployment rate mainly came from Spain, Italy and even France, which saw a first decline in the unemployment rate since February.”
“Even though the economy continues to grow at a steady pace, uncertainty about employment growth seems to mount. Especially in industry, companies are indicating that employment growth is at an 8-month low, while also employment expectations in industry are weakening. Services is performing slightly better, but consumers have nevertheless not worried this much about unemployment since December last year.”
“Even though this is the case, there does not seem to be a significant reason for a turnaround in the unemployment rate. As the economy is expected to continue to grow at the current pace of around 1.5 percent annually, it is likely that the unemployment rate will be below 10 percent sometime next year.”
Key Quotes
The three-month average decline is in fact the 6th strongest since the start of the Eurozone in 1999, which is encouraging. It shows that the labour market is continuing to support the recovery of domestic demand, which has already been the strongest driver of the European economy in recent months. This means that some tailwind can be expected for holiday shopping, but as unemployment remains well above 10 percent, this release is unlikely to affect December’s most important event: the ECB meeting on December 3.”
“Improvements in the unemployment rate mainly came from Spain, Italy and even France, which saw a first decline in the unemployment rate since February.”
“Even though the economy continues to grow at a steady pace, uncertainty about employment growth seems to mount. Especially in industry, companies are indicating that employment growth is at an 8-month low, while also employment expectations in industry are weakening. Services is performing slightly better, but consumers have nevertheless not worried this much about unemployment since December last year.”
“Even though this is the case, there does not seem to be a significant reason for a turnaround in the unemployment rate. As the economy is expected to continue to grow at the current pace of around 1.5 percent annually, it is likely that the unemployment rate will be below 10 percent sometime next year.”