Back
6 Oct 2015
AUD: Trade balance nose-dives, raises rate cut hope from RBA - Rabobank
FXStreet (Delhi) - Michael Every, Research Analyst at Rabobank, suggests that this morning release of Australian trade balance was worse than what the market was expecting which has raised fresh hopes for further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Key Quotes
“Aussie trade balance, which was far worse than expected at –AUD3.1bn in August, with a hefty downward revision to July; that should keep AUD on the back foot.”
“Ideally, it should also keep the RBA, up shortly, on the front foot. However, the Reserve Bank are proving cautious. To their credit, they have publicly stated that “the drugs don’t work,” but at the same time they have hardly indulged the patient to the same extent other central banks have: when will we see a 2% Fed Funds rate, for example? I still believe we have two more 25bp cuts to come in this RBA cycle, and maybe more, even if today does not give much of a clue on when the next will be.”
Key Quotes
“Aussie trade balance, which was far worse than expected at –AUD3.1bn in August, with a hefty downward revision to July; that should keep AUD on the back foot.”
“Ideally, it should also keep the RBA, up shortly, on the front foot. However, the Reserve Bank are proving cautious. To their credit, they have publicly stated that “the drugs don’t work,” but at the same time they have hardly indulged the patient to the same extent other central banks have: when will we see a 2% Fed Funds rate, for example? I still believe we have two more 25bp cuts to come in this RBA cycle, and maybe more, even if today does not give much of a clue on when the next will be.”