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14 Apr 2015
NZD/USD to head lower to 0.72, 3M view – Westpac
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Imre Speizer of Westpac, believes that NZD/USD is poised to break its multi-week sideways contracting range in a downward direction in the week ahead, and move lower towards 0.72 over the next 3 months.
Key Quotes
“Week ahead: NZD/USD is poised to break its multi-week sideways contracting range in a downward direction. If it does so this week, apart from a resurgent US dollar the dairy auction on Wednesday could be a factor.”
“US data poses plenty of risk and includes retail sales, industrial production and CPI.”
“3 months ahead: Lower to at least 0.72. NZ economic data should soon reflect a mid-year dip. Importantly, CPI is expected to be below zero for Q1 when it is released on 20 April.”
“Then on 30 April, the RBNZ is likely to note concern regarding the high trade-weighted NZD. Q1 GDP (released in June) should also be weak (drought effects).”
“While NZ economic data softens during the next few months, US economic data is poised to surprise positively.”
“1 year ahead: Lower to 0.71. The RBNZ is on hold for the next two years, while the Fed is expected to tighten by September. Also, NZ economic data for Q1 and Q2 will be soft.”
Key Quotes
“Week ahead: NZD/USD is poised to break its multi-week sideways contracting range in a downward direction. If it does so this week, apart from a resurgent US dollar the dairy auction on Wednesday could be a factor.”
“US data poses plenty of risk and includes retail sales, industrial production and CPI.”
“3 months ahead: Lower to at least 0.72. NZ economic data should soon reflect a mid-year dip. Importantly, CPI is expected to be below zero for Q1 when it is released on 20 April.”
“Then on 30 April, the RBNZ is likely to note concern regarding the high trade-weighted NZD. Q1 GDP (released in June) should also be weak (drought effects).”
“While NZ economic data softens during the next few months, US economic data is poised to surprise positively.”
“1 year ahead: Lower to 0.71. The RBNZ is on hold for the next two years, while the Fed is expected to tighten by September. Also, NZ economic data for Q1 and Q2 will be soft.”