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5 Dec 2014
Another landslide victory for ruling coalition in Japan? – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Nomura notes several local media forecasts point towards a landslide victory of the LDP/New Komeito coalition, with JPY weakness remaining constant.
Key Quotes
“Several local media reported their preliminary forecasts for the election results, based on opinion polls and their own analysis (Nikkei, Yomiuri, Asahi, Kyodo, and Sankei). The forecasts show that the likelihood of another landslide victory of the LDP/New Komeito coalition is high, while the risk of a regime change is limited.”
“Four out of five forecasts show that the LDP alone could get as many as 300 seats, more seats than the LDP had before the dissolution.”
“The preliminary forecasts suggest the election outcome on 14 December is unlikely to alter the JPY weakness trend, as we expected.”
“At the same time, there will be more forecasts next week, and we still need to monitor any possible changes in the trend. In addition, some investors will be concerned about the possibility that too positive forecasts for the LDP by the local media could encourage voters to vote for the opposition parties, to have a better balance between the ruling coalition and the opposition parties. Thus, there are still uncertainties ahead of the election.”
Key Quotes
“Several local media reported their preliminary forecasts for the election results, based on opinion polls and their own analysis (Nikkei, Yomiuri, Asahi, Kyodo, and Sankei). The forecasts show that the likelihood of another landslide victory of the LDP/New Komeito coalition is high, while the risk of a regime change is limited.”
“Four out of five forecasts show that the LDP alone could get as many as 300 seats, more seats than the LDP had before the dissolution.”
“The preliminary forecasts suggest the election outcome on 14 December is unlikely to alter the JPY weakness trend, as we expected.”
“At the same time, there will be more forecasts next week, and we still need to monitor any possible changes in the trend. In addition, some investors will be concerned about the possibility that too positive forecasts for the LDP by the local media could encourage voters to vote for the opposition parties, to have a better balance between the ruling coalition and the opposition parties. Thus, there are still uncertainties ahead of the election.”