USD Index to test 115 on higher-than-expected US core CPI – ING

Today's US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) release should again be a major market mover. In any case, the US dollar is set to stay supported, in the opinion of economists at ING.

September CPI to prove a major market mover

“All eyes will be on the core measures. Consensus expects 0.4% month-on-month, taking the core year-on-year back to the 6.5% cycle high. While any sub-consensus number could see the dollar briefly dip, we doubt it would alter expectations that the Fed hikes 75 bps in early November and dollar weakness should prove temporary. An above consensus number should send the dollar back to the highs and sink both Treasuries (already softened by the Gilt debacle) and global equity markets.”

“DXY losses are limited to the 111/112 area on a soft CPI print and test 115 on any above consensus number.”

See – US CPI Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, price pressure easing only very slowly